| 石慧,潘云涛,苏成.颠覆性技术及其识别预测方法研究综述[J].情报工程,2019,5(3):033-048 |
| 颠覆性技术及其识别预测方法研究综述 |
| A Review of Research on Disruptive Technology and Its Recognition and Prediction Methods |
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| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2019.03.004 |
| 中文关键词: 颠覆性技术；技术识别；技术预测；综述 |
| 英文关键词: Disruptive technology; technical identification; technical forecast; review |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 石慧 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 | | 潘云涛 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 | | 苏成 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1850 |
| 全文下载次数: 1734 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 为了把握颠覆性技术的研究进展，首先梳理颠覆性技术的提出背景，对颠覆性技术的内涵、特征以及分类进行讨论分析，进一步将颠覆性技术与其他几类相关技术进行区分。然后对已有文献进行系统梳理，将识别与预测方法按照识别模式分为 3 大类：主观判断、客观推导、主观判断与客观推导相结合，大类下包括具体方法。对具体方法分别展开描述，分析总结各种方法的主要思想、优缺点以及使用范围等。研究发现，主观判断的方法较多用于国家等宏观层面，聚焦于技术的市场等环境因素。客观推导聚焦于技术本身，适用于单个技术识别。主观判断和客观推导两种方法的有机结合是未来识别与预测颠覆性技术的趋势。国内缺少较为权威的专业咨询机构，缺少基于国内市场需求的技术预测报告。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to grasp the research progress of disruptive technology, this study first comb the background of disruptive technology, discuss and analyze the connotation, characteristics and classification of disruptive technology, and further distinguish disruptive technology from other related technologies. Then, the existing literature is systematically analyzed, and the recognition and prediction methods are divided into three categories according to the recognition mode: subjective judgment, objective derivation, subjective judgment and objective derivation, and specific methods are included in the large category. This research describe the specific methods separately, analyze and summarize the main ideas, advantages and disadvantages, and scope of use of the various methods. The study found that the methods of subjective judgment are mostly used at the macro level such as the state, focusing on environmental factors such as the market of technology. Objective deduction focuses on the technology itself and is applicable to individual technology identification. The organic combination of subjective judgment and objective derivation is the trend of identifying and predicting disruptive technologies in the future. There is a lack of more authoritative professional consulting institutions in China, and there is a lack of technical forecast reports based on domestic market demand. |
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