| 董尹,刘千里.供应链风险识别中的弱信号介入、感知机制与观测方法研究[J].情报工程,2019,5(3):049-064 |
| 供应链风险识别中的弱信号介入、感知机制与观测方法研究 |
| Intervention, Awareness Mechanism and Observation Method of Weak Signals in Supply Chain Risk Identification |
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| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2019.03.005 |
| 中文关键词: 弱信号；供应链风险识别；态势感知；卡尔曼滤波；模糊TOPSIS |
| 英文关键词: Weak signals; supply chain risk identification; situation awareness; karlman filter; fuzzy TOPSIS |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“ 弱信号生命周期视角下的供应链风险信号识别研究”（71603069）；国家社科基金青年项目“ 意义构建视野下安全情报的弱信号研究”（15CTQ032）；江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“ 面向国家安全的弱信号意义构建机制研究”（14TQC004）。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 董尹 | 合肥学院 | | 刘千里 | 南京大学信息管理学院 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 风险识别是供应链主动式风险管理的首要环节，需要弱信号的介入，通过对其内涵和感知机制的研究，让供应链风险识别在理念和时间先行性上获得提升。首先，对供应链风险识别过程中存在的问题进行了梳理。其次，在形成弱信号概念的基础上，对弱信号介入供应链风险识别的可行性开展分析。之后，以态势感知作为理论基础，借助卡尔曼滤波框架进行补充，形成供应链风险识别中的弱信号感知机制。最后，提出运用模糊 TOPSIS 方法对供应链风险弱信号观测进行描述，并借助仿真算例检验了模糊 TOPSIS 方法对于供应链风险弱信号观测的适用性 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Risk identification is the first important stage in supply chain proactive risk management, and needs weak signals to get involved in order to enhance that perspective and leading time of supply chain risk identification. First of all, finding problems in the supply chain risk identification process.Secondly, forming the concept of weak signals, and analyzing the feasibility of getting involved in supply chain risk identification. Thirdly, based on Situation Awareness theory, we describe that mechanism of supply chain risk weak signals awareness by Karlman filter framework as supplement. Finally, putting forward the way how to observe supply chain risk weak signals by Fuzzy TOPSIS.Moreover, it is tested by a simulation example that fuzzy TOPSIS is workable for observation of supply chain risk weak signals. |
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