| 马立平,张海燕,余星辰.基于传染病模型的颠覆性技术扩散仿真研究[J].情报工程,2022,8(6):016-027 |
| 基于传染病模型的颠覆性技术扩散仿真研究 |
| Simulation of Technology Diffusion of Disruptive Technology Based on Epidemic Model |
| |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2022.06.002 |
| 中文关键词: 颠覆性技术；扩散；传染病模型；大数据；仿真 |
| 英文关键词: Disruptive technology; diffusion; epidemic model; big data; simulation |
| 基金项目:四川省科技重点研发专项科研基金“面向多语种的全球前沿技术智能汇集与应用平台”（2021YFG0031） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 马立平 | 1. 西南科技大学计算机科学与技术学院 绵阳 621010； | | 张海燕 | 2. 武汉三江航天远方科技有限公司 武汉 430048 | | 余星辰 | 1. 西南科技大学计算机科学与技术学院 绵阳 621010； |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 942 |
| 全文下载次数: 1133 |
| 中文摘要: |
| [ 目的 / 意义 ] 为了快速准确地弄清楚颠覆性技术扩散机制和规律，为政府进行有针对性的引导培育和资源的优化配置，促进技术的快速发展，赢得科技竞争优势。[ 方法 / 过程 ] 本文基于传染病模型 SIRS，提出了一种合理运用引导因子促使颠覆性技术扩散发生改变的方法，构建了政府支持引导下颠覆性技术扩散模型，并分析了该模型的平衡点和稳定性。[ 局限 ] 在案例研究中仅采用专利数据进行分析，可能存在分析不够全面，导致所得结论可能存在一定的局限性。[ 结果 / 结论 ] 论文以数码相机和液晶技术为例，通过仿真分析论证模型的可靠性和实用性。最后，设计 4 个场景来考察不同引导因子对技术扩散状态变化的影响，并据此给出政府对颠覆性技术进行支持引导的重要因子及其相应引导培育和资源的优化配置策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective/Significance] Understanding the mechanism and laws of the diffusion of disruptive technologies quickly can strengthen the government’s early guiding role and optimal allocation of resources in key technologies, and promote the rapid development of technology, and at the same time, help enterprises gain the competitive advantage of science and technology. [Methods/Processes] Based on epidemic model SIRS, this paper proposes a method that can promote the change of disruptive technology diffusion by using guided factors reasonably, and constructs a disruptive technology diffusion model with the government’s guiding role，and study the equilibrium points and the stability of this model. [Limitations] Due to the use of patent data for analysis in the case study, the analysis may not be comprehensive enough, which may lead to certain limitations in the conclusions. [Results/Conclusions] The liquid crystal technology and digital camera technology are taken as the typical disruptive technical cases in which the reliability and practicability of the model are demonstrated through simulation analysis. At the end of the paper, four scenarios are designed to study the influence of different guiding factors on the state transition of technology diffusion, based on which, the important factors for the government to support and guide disruptive technologies and its corresponding guidance and cultivation and resource optimization strategy are given. |
|
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
