| 郝新杰.美国情报界主题识别与预测研究——基于LDA的分析[J].情报工程,2025,11(5):022-035 |
| 美国情报界主题识别与预测研究——基于LDA的分析 |
| Research on Topic Identification and Prediction in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Analysis Based on LDA |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 美国情报界；主题识别；焦点预测；LDA 模型 |
| 英文关键词: U.S. Intelligence Community; Topic Identification; Focus Prediction; LDA Model |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 郝新杰 | 中国人民公安大学国家安全学院 北京 100038 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 13 |
| 全文下载次数: 16 |
| 中文摘要: |
| [目的/意义] 通过系统分析特朗普与拜登两届政府时期美国情报界政策文本的核心主题及热度演变规律，预测特朗普2.0 时代情报研究焦点，并得出对中国的战略启示。[方法/过程] 基于美国情报界9大机构192份政策文本，采用LDA 主题模型识别主题，设计主题热度公式量化分析。[局限] 传统LDA 模型以及公开文本的覆盖范围有限。[结果/结论] 技术驱动的核心地位、地缘政治威胁的长期性以及非传统安全议题的政治化构成显著共性；热度演化趋势凸显在安全优先方向、技术治理深度以及非传统威胁评估模式上的系统性差异。预测特朗普2.0 时代将聚焦国防安全、网络安全、人工智能、信息安全、伊核问题、公共卫生事件，并受领导人主观偏好影响，为我国提供了重要的镜鉴和启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective/Significance] This study systematically analyzes the core topics and heat evolution patterns in policy texts of the U.S. intelligence community during the Trump (2017—2021) and Biden (2021—2025) administrations. It predicts intelligence research foci for the “Trump 2.0 era” and derives strategic insights for China. [Methods/Processes] Leveraging 192 policy texts from nine major U.S. intelligence community agencies, the study employs the LDA topic model for topic identification and designs a topic heat formula for quantitative analysis. [Limitations]Traditional LDA models and public texts have limited coverage. [Results/Conclusions] Key commonalities include the centrality of technology-driven agendas,the persistence of geopolitical threats, and the politicization of non-traditional security issues. Heat evolution reveals systemic differences in security priorities, technological governance depth, and non-traditional threat assessment models. Predictions indicate that the “Trump 2.0 era” will prioritize national defense security, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, information security, the Iran nuclear issue, and public health incidents, influenced by the subjective preferences of leadership. This provides a crucial mirror and insights for China. |
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