| 姜明月,武秀杰,刘颖莹,赵林,冯文,刘进.科技- 生态- 经济耦合协调的时空演变、障碍因子及前瞻预测研究—— 以山东省为例[J].情报工程,2026,(1):097-109 |
| 科技- 生态- 经济耦合协调的时空演变、障碍因子及前瞻预测研究—— 以山东省为例 |
| Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution, Obstacle Factors, and Prospective Prediction of Technology Ecology Economy Coupling Coordination: A Case Study of Shandong Province |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 科技-生态-经济；耦合协调；时空演变；障碍因子；前瞻预测 |
| 英文关键词: Technology-Ecology-Economy; Coupling Coordination; Spatiotemporal Evolution; Obstacle Factors; Predictive Analytics |
| 基金项目:山东省人文社科青年重点项目“山东教育科技人才一体化研究”；山东省重点研发计划软科学项目“科技奖励激励科技创新实施路径研究”（2025RZB0111）；山东省社会科学规划项目“颠覆性技术驱动山东未来空间产业发展战略研究”（25CCXJ19）。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 姜明月 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 武秀杰 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252001 | | 刘颖莹 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252002 | | 赵林 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252003 | | 冯文 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252004 | | 刘进 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252005 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的/意义] 科技-生态-经济耦合协调是推动经济高质量发展的重要保障，也是实现人与自然和谐共生、社会长治久安的系统性基础。[方法/过程]基于2013―2022 年山东省16 地市科技创新、生态环境、经济增长相关数据，因地制宜构建了三系统综合评价指标体系。运用熵权法、修正的耦合协调度模型以及ARIMA 预测模型等方法，系统揭示了科技创新、生态环境、经济增长三者之间耦合协调度的时空演变特征和规律，深入剖析障碍因子。[结果/结论]山东省科技创新、生态环境、经济增长演变趋势各有不同，涨幅大小依次为科技创新、经济增长、生态环境；三系统具有不同的空间分异特征，科技创新和经济增长发展较好的地区主要集中在鲁中和鲁东地区，生态环境发展较好的地区主要集中在鲁东沿海地区；2013―2027 年山东省整体耦合协调度稳步上升，但各地市增长态势和增长幅度有所不同，呈现出“中东部强、西南部弱”的空间分布格局；山东省障碍因子变化趋势明显，现阶段影响耦合协调发展的关键障碍因子在经济增长和生态环境方面，同时各地市主要障碍因子种类和占比有所差异。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Purpose/Significance] The coupling and coordination of technology-ecology-economy is an important guarantee for promoting high-quality economic development, as well as a systematic foundation for achieving harmonious coexistence between humans and nature and long-term social stability. [Method/Processes] Based on data related to scientific and technological innovation, ecological environment, and economic growth in 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022, a three-system comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed according to local conditions. By using entropy weight method, modified coupling coordination model, and ARIMA prediction model, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and laws of coupling coordination between technological innovation, ecological environment, and economic growth were systematically revealed,and the obstacle factors were deeply analyzed. [Results/Conclusions] The evolution trends of scientific and technological innovation, ecological environment and economic growth in Shandong Province are different. Their growth rates are in the order of scientific and technological innovation, economic growth and ecological environment. The three systems have different spatial differentiation characteristics. The areas with good technological innovation and economic growth are mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of Shandong, while the areas with good ecological environment development are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of eastern Shandong; From 2013 to 2027, the overall coupling and coordination degree of Shandong Province steadily increased, but the growth trend and magnitude varied among different cities, showing a spatial distribution pattern of “strong in the central and eastern regions and weak in the southwest”; The trend of obstacle factors in Shandong Province is obvious. At present, the key obstacle factors affecting coupled and coordinated development are economic growth and ecological environment. At the same time, the types and proportions of main obstacle factors vary among different cities. |
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