| 杨熙若,李亚丹,丁奕芳,刘彦乔.“论文 - 专利”视角下新兴技术主题识别与演化路径分析[J].情报工程,2026,12(4):036-052 |
| “论文 - 专利”视角下新兴技术主题识别与演化路径分析 |
| Identification of Emerging Technology Topics and Analysis of Evolutionary Pathways from the “Paper-Patent” Perspective |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 新兴技术识别；主题动态演化；LDA-ERNIE-DTM 模型；多指标综合评价；氢能产业 |
| 英文关键词: Emerging Technology Identification; Topic Dynamic Evolution; LDA-ERNIE-DTM Model; Multi-indicator Comprehensive Evaluation; Hydrogen Energy Industry |
| 基金项目:四川省科技计划项目“多源数据驱动下新兴技术主题识别研究”（2023sj-kgb06）；成都市软科学研究计划项目“成都市氢能产业技术发展分析及对策研究”（2025-RK00-00036-ZF）。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 杨熙若 | 四川省科学技术信息研究所 成都 610000 | | 李亚丹 | 四川省科学技术信息研究所 成都 610001 | | 丁奕芳 | 四川省科学技术信息研究所 成都 610002 | | 刘彦乔 | 四川省科学技术信息研究所 成都 610003 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的/意义]基于 LDA-ERNIE-DTM 混合模型和多维指标测度识别新兴技术主题，分析论文主题与专利主题之间的演化及行业技术发展路径。[方法/过程]基于论文-专利多源数据，在传统 LDA 模型基础上，结合 ERNIE 大模型进行语义增强；设计涵盖新颖性、影响力、增长性等的多维指标体系，采用CRITIC客观赋权法计算主题综合指数，识别出新兴技术主题；引入动态主题建模（DTM）方法，构建主题演化桑基图可视化主题演化及技术路径跃迁过程。[结果/结论]以氢能产业为实证对象，识别出氢能系统优化与成本调度策略、电堆性能预测与优化模型等 6 个新兴技术主题，不同阶段论文和专利主题节点之间频繁分裂与融合，相互促进发展，同时，识别出电解水制氢、燃料电池、储氢三条核心技术演化路径，识别结果与《氢能产业发展中长期规划（2021―2035年）》等文件的指导方向基本一致。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective/Significance] This study aims to identify emerging technology themes using a hybrid LDA-ERNIE-DTM model combined with multi-indicator measurement, and to analyze the evolution between paper themes and patent themes as well
as the technological development paths across industries. [Methods/Processes] Based on multi-source data of papers and patents,this research enhances semantic representation by integrating the ERNIE large model with the traditional LDA model. A multi-indicator system covering novelty, influence, and growth potential is designed, and the CRITIC objective weighting method is used to calculate the comprehensive theme index for identifying emerging technology themes. The Dynamic Topic Modeling (DTM) method is introduced to construct a Sankey diagram of theme evolution, visualizing the process of theme evolution and technological path transition. [Results/Conclusions] Taking the hydrogen energy industry as an empirical case, six emerging technology themes are identified, including hydrogen energy system optimization and cost scheduling strategies, and fuel cell performance prediction and optimization models. During different stages, frequent splitting and merging occur between paper theme nodes and patent theme nodes, which mutually promote their development. Meanwhile, three core technological evolution paths are identified: water electrolysis for hydrogen production, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage. The identification results are basically consistent with the guiding directions outlined in Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021—2035) and other relevant documents. |
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