| 佟贺丰,杨岩.中国城镇化的生态足迹影响——基于系统动力学模型的模拟仿真分析[J].情报工程,2017,3(6):022-033 |
| 中国城镇化的生态足迹影响——基于系统动力学模型的模拟仿真分析 |
| Ecological Footprint of China’s Urbanization: A Simulation Analysis Based on System Dynamics Model |
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| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2017.06.004 |
| 中文关键词: 城镇化，生态足迹，系统动力学，仿真 |
| 英文关键词: Urbanization, ecological footprint, system dynamics, simulation |
| 基金项目:本文受北京市财政项目“京津冀协同发展对北京能源-环境-经济系统的影响分析模型研发”（PXM2016-178215-000014）资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 佟贺丰 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 | | 杨岩 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 众多研究表明生态足迹与城镇化进程密切相关。本研究通过构建系统动力学模型，进行综合和单一情景分析，就不同的城镇化路径选择进行仿真模拟。结果显示：未来 15 年中国的生态足迹变化将经历两个不同的阶段。2015-2025 年，产业结构仍然为资源消耗型，生态足迹仍在逐步增加，碳足迹占比达到峰值，但逐渐接近生态足迹的峰值。2026-2030 年，城镇化转向以集约的方式发展，使得人均生态足迹的增值效应逐渐减弱，在达到峰值后开始下降。中国的人均生态足迹将在 2029 年达到峰值。情景对比分析表明，走绿色发展的城镇化道路对生态足迹的降低有重要影响。最后对我国未来城镇化的发展从生态足迹角度提出了相应的建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Many studies show that the ecological footprint is closely related to the process of Urbanization.In this study, a system dynamics model for ecological footprint simulation of China was constructed to simulate the different urbanization path selection based on comprehensive and single scenarios. The results indicated that there are two stages for the ecological foot print variation in the next 15 years. The first stage is during the year 2015-2020, in this stage, the industrial structure of China is still a resource consumption type, the ecological footprint was gradually increased, and the carbon footprint accounted for the peak while approaching the ecological footprint. The second stage is during year 2026-2030, in this stage, the urbanization process of China turned to intensive development, which lead to the gradually decrease of appreciation effect of ecological footprint per capita, and the ecological footprint will reach its peak at 2029 then decreased gradually. The results also indicated that the urbanization can reduce the ecological footprint under the green development scenario.Moreover, we also promoted few suggestions for the future urbanization selection path of China based on the
scenario analysis of ecological foot print for supporting the decision making in the near future. |
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