| 魏晨,吴晨生.对非常规突发事件中的情报工作探析——以新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情为例[J].情报工程,2023,9(2):051-061 |
| 对非常规突发事件中的情报工作探析——以新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情为例 |
| An Examination of Intelligence Work in Unusual Emergency Situations——Taking the COVID-19 as an Example |
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| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2023.02.005 |
| 中文关键词: 非常规突发事件；新冠肺炎疫情；情报 |
| 英文关键词: Unconventional emergencies; COVID-19; Intelligence |
| 基金项目:北京市社会科学基金项目“嵌入式协同决策情报在非常规突发事件中的服务机制”（21GLC041） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 魏晨 | 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所 北京 100044 | | 吴晨生 | 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所 北京 100044 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [ 目的 / 意义 ] 防范非常规突发事件（如新冠肺炎疫情）至关重要，不仅关乎人民群众健康安全，更关乎经济发展和社会稳定大局。然而现有的危机管理三阶段理论，不仅难以涵盖当前新冠肺炎疫情的演化方式，也忽略了情报在“引发期”与“演化期”中的重要作用。[ 方法 / 过程 ] 非常规突发事件是“没规律或不确知的不确定性”，而突发事件是“确知的不确定性”。二者区分明显！因此在原有三阶段划分基础上，加入了“引入期”和“演化期”。以武汉市的新冠肺炎疫情为例，分析了服务新冠肺炎疫情的情报工作，并指出了情报的缺失问题。[ 结果 / 结论 ] 只有情报人员具备“先知后觉”的情报感知能力，才能对疫情做出快速地应急响应。情报工作需要防范在疫情潜伏期、引发期中的缺失问题，增强对演化期的研判和决策支撑能力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Purpose/Significance] It is critically significant to prevent unexpected crises (such as the COVID-19 outbreak), not just for individual health and safety, but also for the nation’s general economic development and social stability. However, the present three-stage crisis management paradigm not only fails to cover the current evolution of COVID-19, but also ignores the significant role of intelligence in the “introduction” and “evolution” phases. [Method/Process] Unexpected emergencies are defined as “irregular or unpredictable uncertainty,” whereas emergencies are defined as “predictable uncertainty.” The distinction between the two is clearly visible! As a result, the “introduction phase” and “evolutionary phase” were added to the original three-stage classification. Taking COVID-19 as an example, we also examine the intelligence work and highlight the lack of intelligence. [Result/Conclusion] The investigation and judgment ability to “foresee” intelligence perception and develop intelligence (thinking) is required for the emergency intelligence service for unusual emergencies. It is vital to prevent a lack of intelligence during the epidemic’s latent and triggering phases, as well as to improve research and decision-making capabilities throughout the evolutionary phase. |
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