| 魏晨,胡峰,王冰琪.WSR 理论视阈下应急响应中的情报失误成因探析——以国内 A 市突发事件为例[J].情报工程,2023,9(4):029-039 |
| WSR 理论视阈下应急响应中的情报失误成因探析——以国内 A 市突发事件为例 |
| Cause Analysis of Intelligence Failures in Emergency Response Under the Perspective of Wuli-Shili- Renli System Approach |
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| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.2095-915X.2023.04.003 |
| 中文关键词: 情报；应急响应；情报失误；WSR 理论；规避方法 |
| 英文关键词: Intelligence; Emergency Response; Intelligence Failure; Wuli-Shili-Renli System Approach; Avoidance Measures |
| 基金项目:北京市社会科学基金项目“嵌入式协同决策情报在非常规突发事件中的服务机制”（21GLC041）。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 魏晨 | 1. 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所 北京 100044； | | 胡峰 | 2. 江苏省科学技术情报研究所 南京 210042 | | 王冰琪 | 1. 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所 北京 100044； |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的/意义]情报是影响应急响应效能的重要因素之一，情报失误往往也是造成应急响应不及时和决策偏差的主要因素。因此，研究情报失误的成因具有重要意义。[方法/过程]首先，分析了情报失误的内涵及定义。其次，基于 WSR 理论，深入剖析了情报失误的成因，构建了情报主导的应急响应模型，概述了情报失误的规避方法。最后，通过案例诠释如何提升情报在突发事件中的响应效能。[结果/结论]造成情报失误的原因（物理、事理和人理）贯穿于情报链的各个环节。规避情报失误应“对症下药”，才能提升应急管理效能和水平。构建相互嵌套融合的情报服务体系是保障应急响应效能的重要路径。为避免或减少情报失误，唯有持续探索和发现情报失误的规律，才有助于提高情报分析的准确性和有效性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective/Significance] Intelligence is one of the important factors affecting the effectiveness of emergency response, and intelligence failure is often the main factor that cause untimely emergency response and decision-making deviation. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the causes of intelligence failures. [Methods/Processes] Firsty, this paper analyzes the concept and definition of intelligence failures. Secondly, analyzes the causes of intelligence failures and constructthe intelligence-oriented emergency response model based on the WSR theory, then briefly outline the methods of avoiding intelligence failures. Lastly, explains how to improve the response efficiency of intelligence in unexpected disaster events through case studies. [Results/Conclusions]The causes of intelligence failures run through all aspects of intelligence chain. Only by finding specific ways to solve problems can the intelligence failures be avoided. Building a nested and integrated information service system is an important way to ensure the effectiveness of emergency response. In order to avoid or reduce intelligence failures, the only way to improve the accuracy and efficiency of intelligence analysis is to sustainably explore and find the law of intelligence failures. |
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