| 姜明月,王舒扬,刘颖莹,赵林,张舒,刘进.教育－科技－人才一体化耦合协调发展研究—— 以山东省为例[J].情报工程,2025,11(1):072-084 |
| 教育－科技－人才一体化耦合协调发展研究—— 以山东省为例 |
| Research on the Integrated Coupling and Coordinated Development of Higher Education, Technological Innovation, and Talent Coupling: A Case Study of Shandong Province |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 教育－科技－人才；耦合协调；障碍因子；预测分析 |
| 英文关键词: Education-Technology-Talent; Coupling Coordination; Obstacle Factors; Predictive Analysis |
| 基金项目:山东省重点研发计划( 软科学项目)“基于未来产业的概念验证中心建设初探”(2023RZB02022)；山东省自然科学基金青年基金项目“山东省重大科技创新平台体系建设与新质生产力发展路径研究”(ZR2024QG217)。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 姜明月 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 王舒扬 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 刘颖莹 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 赵林 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 张舒 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 | | 刘进 | 山东省创新发展研究院 济南 252000 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的/意义]在中国式现代化背景下，教育、科技、人才耦合协调发展是建设现代化强省的重要前提。[方法/过程] 选取2013―2022 年山东省16 地市为研究对象，从创新投入、创新产出、教育规模、教育经费、人才储备水平等9个维度构建三系统评价指标体系，利用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、障碍度模型以及灰色预测模型，测算并预测2023―2029 年山东省高等教育、科技创新、人才耦合协调度，全面揭示其时空格局演化及障碍因素。[结果/结论] 山东省高等教育、科技创新、人才发展水平整体上均呈现出增长趋势，科技创新涨幅> 人才涨幅> 高等教育涨幅，2018 年后涨幅明显；山东省16 地市的三系统耦合协调度呈现出上升趋势，但整体耦合协调度不高，且不同地区的差异较为显著；山东省障碍因子主要集中在创新产出、人才发展规模、创新投入、人才资源和创新环境方面，其中创新产出和人才发展规模呈现出持续上涨趋势，成为影响耦合协调发展的关键；济南、青岛与其他地市的障碍因子具有较大差别；预测结果显示山东省16 地市的耦合协调度整体上呈现出递增趋势，处于协调类型的地市数量持续增加。有助于推动构建高等教育、科技创新和人才协同联动机制，为山东省实施教育－科技－人才一体化战略提供参考依据和政策启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective/Significance] In the context of the Chinese path to modernization, the coupling and coordinated development of education, technology and talents is an important prerequisite for building a modern province. [Methods/ Processes] This study selected 16 cities in Shandong Province as research objects, with a time span from 2013 to 2022. An evaluation index system was constructed from 12 dimensions including innovation input, innovation output, education scale, education funding, and talent reserve level. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, obstacle degree model, and grey prediction model were used to calculate and predict the coupling coordination of higher education, scientific and technological innovation, and talent in Shandong Province from 2023 to 2029, comprehensively revealing their spatiotemporal pattern evolution and obstacle factors. [Results/Conclusions] Research has found that the overall level of higher education, technological innovation, and talent development in Shandong Province has shown an increasing trend, with technological innovation growth rate> higher education growth rate> talent growth rate, and a significant increase after 2018; The coupling coordination degree of the three systems in 16 cities in Shandong Province shows an upward trend, but the overall coupling coordination degree is not high, and the differences between different regions are significant. The main obstacles in Shandong Province are concentrated in innovation output, talent development scale, innovation investment, talent resources, and innovation environment. Among them, innovation output and talent development scale show a continuous upward trend, becoming key factors affecting coupled and coordinated development. There are significant differences in barrier factors between Jinan, Qingdao, and other cities. The prediction results show that the overall coupling coordination degree of 16 cities in Shandong Province shows an increasing trend, and the number of cities in the coordination type continues to increase. This study contributes to promoting the construction of a collaborative linkage mechanism between higher education, technological innovation, and talent, providing reference and policy inspiration for the implementation of the education-technology-talent integration strategy in Shandong Province. |
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